Babe's Eye View article

While there are many people engrossed once again about allegations of corruption in government, or something as trivial as finding Christmas gifts for their friends, the real problem that could come within the next year is the food crisis. This is something that we should think about seriously.

The problem of rising food prices and its consequences especially for the poor could turn into a major global crisis. Earlier, the head of the UN's World Food Program has warned that soaring prices of wheat, corn, milk and other basic food sources will hit the "poorest people in poorest countries," saying they have been "priced out of the food market."

A recent cover story by The Economist confirmed that food prices have jumped by 75 percent since 2005. It's an assessment that Filipinos will certainly agree with, easily pointing to the price of pandesal—a staple for the majority—as an indicator, increasing from P2 to P2.50 per piece. Ask an ordinary Filipino about galunggong as well and he will grumble it's no longer considered food for the poor like it was in the '70s, what with the price per kilo shooting up to P100.

It's not only the poor and developing countries that are feeling the pinch and complaining about ever tightening budgets. In fact, Italians took to the streets sometime in October to protest against increased pasta prices, with a farmers' group saying consumption of pasta and bread has dropped to almost 8 percent.

Experts are attributing rising food prices to the increased demand for grains and other food commodities from fast growing nations like China and India. Climate change is also being pinpointed, with floods and droughts devastating a lot of harvests not only in the Philippines but even in England which experienced one of the worst floods this summer.

Serious droughts hit several areas like Australia which experienced one of its worst dry spells ever. Dire predictions are being made about permanent droughts by 2050 stretching from Kansas to California. No doubt extreme weather patterns are seriously affecting crop harvests especially in areas prone to drought or flooding.

Heightened demand for biofuels particularly in Europe and the United States is contributing to high food costs, with more and more agricultural lands devoted to corn, sugar and other plant-oil sources. In the Philippines, the Biofuels Act of 2006 mandates the gradual increase of biodiesel and ethanol mix in fuels over the next 10 years.

While this will increase economic opportunity for farmers and agricultural communities by creating jobs and boosting incomes, it could also result in the lessened supply of agricultural products, which could drive up prices. This may sound funny but in certain parts of Mexico, the demand for ethanol drove up the price of corn tortillas by almost 400 percent, causing a national crisis since corn tortilla is a staple food for poor Mexicans.

GMA has directed Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap to help bring down the prices of basic food commodities and make food accessible especially to low-income families. But giving instructions is not enough. We should start making long-term plans to counteract this developing food crisis. Giving orders to bring down prices is not going to cut it, because rising food prices is a worldwide problem that could be disastrous for countries like the Philippines and other Third World nations.

In Pakistan, for instance, the political unrest is compounded by spreading hunger and poverty, which analysts say can be attributed to agricultural backwardness, high expenditure on defense, and rapid population growth—resulting in the increased number of dependents which consequently lower the per capita income.

Thomas Malthus predicted that uncontrolled population growth could result in starvation with rising food prices as an early indicator. The Philippines has a major population problem with a large number of people added to the poor sector every year. Combine a food crisis with a big population growth and you have a combustible mix that could lead to food riots. This is not only food for thought, but something very real that could potentially happen soon. Government should take the initiative to avert this potential crisis today—not tomorrow.

During the MOPC forum last Tuesday, AFP chief Gen. Hermogenes Esperon was very emphatic in saying the program for finishing the communist insurgency by 2010 is still on track, predicting that communist rebel forces will be significantly reduced by 2009.

Esperon, who is retiring on Feb. 9 next year when he reaches the mandatory retirement age of 56, also said that support for military adventurists like Antonio Trillanes is dwindling rapidly, shown during the Manila Pen caper with people totally ignoring the call of Trillanes for a transition government.

GMA has been lucky over the past six years, overcoming threats the latest of which was the Manila Pen caper. Unless her luck runs out, she would most likely finish her term in 2010. And definitely, her luck is enhanced by having Gen. Esperon whose loyalty is unquestionable.

I have to admit the general has come out to be one of the best AFP chiefs, contrary to what other people initially thought. He's a straight shooter who answered the Garci issue straight to the point. He enjoys a high level of respect and credibility among military officers. He has been tested in battle against Muslim secessionists, and was known as the hero of Camp Rajamuddah during his stint in Mindanao against MILF rebels. I would perhaps even suggest that GMA extend his term, not only for the sake of the AFP, but for herself.